TodayEconomist predicts growth locally
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Article RatingAn economist told Cumberland County residents this morning that the economy in 2007 will grow — but at a slower rate than last year.
Robert Sweet, an economist with MBT Investment Advisors, predicts growth of 2.5 percent to 3 percent, depending on such factors as oil.
“The wild card is oil,” he said. “If it stays contained, you could see 3 percent growth.”
Sweet was the featured speaker at the Carlisle Chamber of Commerce’s annual economic forecast breakfast at Carlisle Country Club in Middlesex Township.
Sweet explained growth is affected by uncertainty in the Middle East because of the supply of oil and the war in Iraq. If the price of oil stays around $50 a barrel, we could see 3 percent growth or better. If it jumps closer to $60, growth would be more like 2.5 percent, he said.
Sweet said the good news is that south-central Pennsylvania is in a better position than the national economy.
Locally, the economy is buoyed by government workers, agriculture, tourism and a skilled work force.
He added that nearby Letterkenny Army Depot should gain about 400 new jobs from the Base Realignment and Closure process.
With 155,000 new jobs being created nationally each month, the job picture has improved over the days of the so-called jobless recovery.
That, combined with a possible end to interest rate increases, should contribute to a boost in consumer confidence.
And, elected officials will not want a recession going into the 2008 elections, he said.
Sweet, a graduate of Trinity College in Hartford, has a master’s degree and a doctorate in economic history from the Catholic University of America, an MBA from Loyola College and a law degree from the University of Baltimore School of Law.
