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Local economic advice: ‘Ride it out’
Despite the drop in most investment portfolios, investors and banking officials say it’s not time to panic.
Area investors, educators and banking officials all echo the same advice about the nation’s current financial crisis — ride it out.
Ray Porter, a retired Army colonel from South Middleton Township, aggressively monitors the ups and downs of the world markets, making trades on a daily basis.
“I’m not personally worried, because I’ve seen this cycle a number of times,” the 63-year-old said Wednesday, citing the stock market crash of 1987 and dot-com bust in 2000-01.
Almost everyone is losing money right now, but it will turn around, he said. “There is a difference between losing money and being hurt.”
Porter is not a licensed financial adviser. He manages just his personal portfolio but does consider himself an educator.
Every year for the last 15 years, he has hosted an annual finance seminar at the Carlisle Barracks, teaching people the basics of having a financial plan.
With the recent failings of some big financial institutions and the record-breaking slide in the stock market Monday, neighbors have regularly approached Porter, asking him what they should do now.
His message: You paid the price to be here, stay for the final act.
“If you have a retirement or long-term investment portfolio and it’s down 20 to 30 percent, which is normal this year, then essentially you’ve paid the price to be in the market,” he said. “You’ve already suffered pain, so why leave unless you expect it to go down that much more?”
By getting out now, investors are forfeiting their chance to recoup losses, he said. “Long-term lets you handle the rollercoaster.”
Diversification
Someone with a well-diversified stock portfolio, or wide variety of investments, shouldn’t be too concerned about what’s going on right now, said Premal Vora, associate professor of finance at Penn State Harrisburg.
Diversification minimizes the risk from any one investment because different stocks rise and fall independently of each other.
“The worst thing you can do is sell stocks while the stock market is down,” he said, noting a market fall of 13 percent since January. “If you look at the history of the U.S. financial markets, typically the market rises the following year. If you sell now, you lock in the value of a 13 percent fall.”
Patience is the key to rebounding, he argued.
People shouldn’t be juggling their 401(k) accounts, Porter and Vora explained.
“Let it ride and continue to put in the same amount every month,” Porter said. “You definitely want to continue to put in monthly payments, because that is buying you in at a lower average and it will help you long term.”
Phillip Fague, executive vice president of Orrstown Bank, agreed. It’s not time to look at the 401(k) and make a bunch of changes to it, he said.
“It’s not time to panic and bail out of stocks,” he said.
Investment alternatives
People with short-term objectives might want to consider the safety of money market accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). These accounts, along with IRA retirement accounts, are generally insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Company up to the legal limit of $100,000, and sometimes even more for special kinds of accounts or ownership categories.
The newly-passed government rescue plan includes a provision that increases that coverage cap to $250,000.
“Long term, you’re still better off in stocks,” Fague said. “If you look at a 10-year period, the return has exceeded both bonds and CDs.”
U.S. Treasury bonds are viewed as the best safeguard for most people when it comes to conservative investing, because the government is obligated to pay back the principle and interest.
Psychological impact
The problem is that most people don’t understand the real ramifications of what’s happening in the market, Fague explained. No one knows when things will turn around, he said.
“Psychologically, the consumer is impacted by this and that will reflect in the economy,” Porter said, explaining that most people feel like they have less money.
This means less consumption and consumer spending, fewer and shorter vacations, and the list goes on.
“Individual consumer confidence is a major factor,” Porter said.
It all boils down to what risks a person can afford to make, added Steve Trapnell, a Susquehanna Bank spokesman. “You can’t give blanket advice.”
In any type of investment, people should be aware of the risks and safeguards in place to protect them from losing their money, he said.
“It’s always important to know both the risks and possible rewards,” Trapnell said. “This environment just reminds people about that.”
Local banks say they are doing well during these times, attracting those customers who are nervous about the larger financial institutions and tighter lending standards, including higher credit scores.
“The money is not flowing through the economy as smoothly as it did before. That makes banks take a more conservative approach,” Trapnell said. “Everyone is being careful.”
Both Fague and Trapnell advise those people with concerns to visit their local branch and talk to financial advisers to help guide them through the process.





